Ranking in the top 10 predicts AI Overview citations far less than it did

What happened?

Ahrefs published an updated analysis of 863,000 keywords and 4 million AI Overview citations. It found that 38 percent of cited pages also ranked in the top 10 results for the same query. In the July version of the same study, that figure was 76 percent. The remaining citations split almost evenly between positions 11 to 100 and pages ranking below position 100. Ahrefs notes that it improved how it detects citations between the two studies, so the two numbers are not directly comparable.

Why does it matter?

The working assumption for years has been that ranking on page one is the route to being cited. That link is weaker than it looked. Ahrefs points to query fan out, where Google splits one search into several smaller ones and favors pages that appear across those sub searches. A separate BrightEdge analysis put the overlap closer to 17 percent using different methods. For a small organization, this is quietly encouraging: you do not have to outrank a national site to be quoted in an answer.

Should I do anything?

Do not change anything yet. Pick your single most important page and write down three or four smaller questions someone might ask on the way to the main one. Then check whether your page answers any of them in plain language, under its own heading. If it does not, add one short section answering the most obvious of the three. That is the whole task for now. Covering a topic from a few angles is what fan out rewards, and one section is enough to start.

Learn more

• Ahrefs: AI Overview citations and top 10 rankings
• Search Engine Journal: reporting on the Ahrefs data
• Our guide: Google AI Overviews explained
• Our guide: build topic authority